Thanks Groove community for keeping us on our toes. In our update yesterday we announced that we were adding CVSL to our focus list but the link we provided did not take readers to the completed due diligence report. Here is the excerpt from yesterday with the link to the due diligence report –
We believe we have found an opportunity (NYSE Mkt: CVSL) that can be a home run without even solving all of the issues that have driven it down this low ($1.09) and it could realistically be a 10 bagger over the next 4-5 years if former Mary Kay Cosmetics CEO John Rochon successfully executes his stated plan. CVSL traded at it’s all time low earlier today ($1.07) and is currently very close to being a pariah – shunned because of sub par operational performance at recently acquired companies, shunned because it is in the direct selling business, shunned because the CEO of its largest division was just fired and shunned due to negative perceptions in the investment community driven by inordinately negative articles about CVSL.
The negatives for CVSL the last 6-9 months have been overwhelming and the stock has fallen 90% as a result. The current valuation reflects a total company value (adjusted for cash/debt) of around $23 million. This is a company that we believe to be on a $160 million 12 month run rate and one who could easily exceed those numbers to the upside with just a little boost in momentum among the true drivers of value for this company – its widespread and diverse 50,000 rep strong sales force. While we believe issues that recent negative articles have focused on not without merit, we also believe that these issues are more than fully reflected in the company’s valuation. While it may be another quarter before we see its bellwether acquisition (Longaberger) turn the corner and start growing again, we think that when it becomes apparent that Longaberger is back on a growth trajectory it will drive the stock substantially higher allowing for a potential “home run” (400% return) from existing levels on just that turn. Click here for the full CVSL due diligence
While the Groove does not choose focus stocks whose primary listing is on a foreign exchange, we believe the opportunity presented by one of our own in a very well researched and presented article yesterday deserves a good look by Groove investors for a number of reasons not the least of which is what seems to be a very strong growth story and likelihood that there will soon be a Nasdaq uplisting. The Asymmetrical Tech Investor makes a very strong case for starting to build positions now for multiple reasons and we note that US investors are able to buy shares through the Pink Sheets listing symbol POETF. Read the full article here.
Inuvo announced last week it will be added to the Russell Microcap® Index when Russell Investments reconstitutes its comprehensive set of U.S. and global equity indexes on June 26, according to a preliminary list of additions posted June 12. Russell indexes are widely used by investment managers and institutional investors for index funds and as benchmarks for active investment strategies. This is a win for Inuvo management and shareholders, as it will get many more money managers and institutions familiar with Inuvo at a time when the company’s operations are growing and delivering strong results quarter after quarter.
Two months ago on April 17, we pointed out to Groove investors that the recent sell off in Inuvo shares had been way over done, as the stock had fallen from its high of $3.50 to just over $2 /share in a very short time following a negative article written by short sellers. In that piece we mentioned our expectation that the stock would soon re-test its $3.50 multi-year high and Inuvo shares did just that earlier this week touching a multi year high of $3.57 before pulling back to its to a trading range of $3.05-$3.30. This corresponds to a 50-70% return for all Groove investors who repurchased Inuvo shares after our update.
In our most recent update, we decided to remove Travelzoo from our focus list. We hope that Groovers were able to take advantage of the several days following that where the stock was still trading in the $13.25 – $13.43 range to reduce their holdings to the degree that they took their risk capital off the table and continued holding only the shares that represented “house money”. Since that time TZOO shares have traded down by over $2 per share and settling into a range between $10.80 and $11.75, approximately $1.50-$2.50 below the price it was trading at when we suggested Groove Investors take their profits off the table.
Replacing TZOO on the Focus List – CVSL
Since the removal of TZOO from our focus list, we have been surveying the landscape for stocks that better fit what we have traditionally sought to unearth for the Groove community – below the Wall Street radar micro cap opportunities that have enormous upside potential despite current issues causing them to be shunned, out of favor or in some cases, simply overlooked. We believe we have found an opportunity (NYSE Mkt: CVSL) that can be a home run without even solving all the issues that have driven it down this low ($1.09) and it could realistically be a 10 bagger over the next 4-5 years if former Mary Kay Cosmetics CEO John Rochon successfully executes his stated plan. CVSL traded at it’s all time low earlier today ($1.07) and is currently very close to being a pariah – shunned because of sub par operational performance at recently acquired companies, shunned because it is in the direct selling business, shunned because the CEO of its largest division was just fired and shunned due to negative perceptions in the investment community driven by inordinately negative articles about CVSL.
The negatives for CVSL the last 6-9 months have been overwhelming and the stock has fallen 90% as a result. The current valuation reflects a total company value (adjusted for cash/debt) of around $23 million. This is a company that we believe to be on a $160 million 12 month run rate and one who could easily exceed those numbers to the upside with just a little boost in momentum among the true drivers of value for this company – its widespread and diverse 50,000 rep strong sales force. While we believe issues that recent negative articles have focused on not without merit, we also believe that these issues are more than fully reflected in the company’s valuation. While it may be another quarter before we see its bellwether acquisition (Longaberger) turn the corner and start growing again, we think that when it becomes apparent that Longaberger is back on a growth trajectory it will drive the stock substantially higher allowing for a potential “home run” (400% return) from existing levels on just that turn. Click here for the full CVSL due diligence report.
We are removing Travelzoo from our recommended buy list and suggest that Groove members consider selling at least enough shares to cover their original cost. On February 3, 2015 we added Travelzoo to our recommended buy list when it was trading at $8.68. At today’s range of $13.25-$13.40, Groove participants can book a 50%+ gain in just over three months and we believe it makes sense to sell at least enough to cover your initial investment at this time.
While we still believe that Travelzoo has the potential to move exponentially higher if it makes the successful transition to focus on commission based agency hotel bookings, we are increasingly seeing evidence that TZOO management is finding it difficult to make the transition. Frankly, we do not understand why the company is moving so slowly, as our most recent checks indicate little to no growth in inventory or markets since the start of Q2 and we can not find evidence that Travelzoo is aggressively pursuing the rollout like we were expecting. In summary, we still believe there is tremendous value here and great potential, we are just not sure that this management team can make it happen and while we see tremendous upside in an acquisition scenario, management’s 50%+ share ownership makes such deals hinge completely on management’s desire to sell the company.
Great article out this week on Inuvo by one of our own and it appears from the trading action that it has either ignited a short squeeze or has caused some investors with substantial capital to take notice of the shareholder value being created at Inuvo. The article gives three very strong reasons for being bullish on Inuvo’s prospects –
1) Very bullish comments by typically conservative Inuvo CEO Rich Howe published in a letter to shareholders this morning –
“As of May 1, 2015 we had a growing and profitable company with an approximate market value of $54 million dollars. We believe we have plenty of room to grow and valuation multiples in our marketspace remain attractive. We are trading at about 1 times trailing twelve month sales in an industry that typically trades upwards of 2 or more times trailing twelve month sales.”
2) Large Open Market Stock Purchases Averaging UP for First Time by Inuvo BOD Chairman and largest shareholder Charles Morgan –
Chairman Morgan filed form 4’s over the weekend that indicated he had acquired another $130K worth of Inuvo stock. We believe any six figure purchase of stock by an insider is significant, but this one is particularly so because we believe that it is the first time since Mr. Morgan first bought into Inuvo that he is making a purchase of shares at a price that is higher than his existing basis – averaging up instead of averaging down. He has made similarly large open market purchases in the past, but most of them were at prices less than half the current trading price and each of those served to bring down the average cost of his holdings. This purchase was substantially higher than his overall basis in Inuvo stock and it was done at prices much higher than previous ones.
3) Acquisition of media/mobile/content giant AOL –
This week it was announced that AOL was being acquired by Verizon. While there are many facets to the AOL empire, the core growth engine is focused on mobile/media/content/advertising – much like Inuvo. While it is not really an apples to apples comparison and I do not believe anyone would suggest that Inuvo is comparable to AOL, the large premium paid for a company with similar lines of business often leads to investors to look around for other smaller players in the space that might be gobbled up at a nice premium. Given the valuation of Inuvo and its profitable and rapidly growing mobile advertising business, it would not be surprising to see one of the larger players in the space make a run at Inuvo. Given CEO Howe’s recent comments, it appears that any discussions would likely require such talks to start with prices in the $4 per share range.
The price has steadily moved higher and the trading volume has increased each of the last two days since the article was published, with a large spike in volume in trading late Thursday afternoon before the close. It appeared for much of the last two sessions that short sellers were actively seeking to thwart any advance in the stock. It will be interesting to see if Thursday’s strong move upwards on very high volume will bring more interest in Inuvo on Friday and if so, if it will ultimately lead to a retest of that $3.50 high from last month.
Groove investors holding Inuvo shares were treated to a strong Q1 report, with revenue of $13.4m and earnings per share of 3 cents, outperforming analysts’ estimates of $12.5 million in revenue and 1 cent per share in earnings. This continued Inuvo’s trend of growing the top and bottom lines YOY and produced what is now the fifth straight quarter of bottom line profitability. More important than the numbers reported for Q1 were the comments by management and their general bullishness on each line of business for the remainder of the year. Management has long been skittish about giving forward guidance so we felt the extremely bullish tone of the call was notable.
Key points on the call –
1) Inuvo CEO Rich Howe’s discussion of the “action metric” as the key determinant of the success of the O&O segments’ success. The action metric tracks the company’s progress in producing revenue generating clicks vs. using the more traditional measures of general traffic trends, unique visitors etc. While these other metrics are not without value, they do not directly measure the things that will create value for shareholders – revenue and profits. The action metric measures both quality visitors (those who do what we want which is click revenue generating ads) and how the quality of those visitors is impacting what advertisers are willing to pay (measured by an increase in revenue per click). Mr. Howe stated “..we’ve seen a 72% increase in clicks and an 18% increase in the revenue per click when compared March, 2014 to March, 2015 within this O&O segment of our business”. This is a very, very impressive achievement and speaks volumes about the strength of the company’s execution of its searchlinks strategy. The implications to Inuvo’s top and bottom lines if this trend continues are huge and management’s comments regarding April trends suggests that to be the case with management comments indicating a 30% increase in revenue over April of 2014.
2) Q&A answers – Mr. Howe’s answers and tone in the Q&A session were particularly bullish. When asked by Zack’s analyst Lisa Thompson about whether earlier comments on the call meant that management was expecting sequential quarterly growth or year over year growth, Mr. Howe replied “both”. Given management’s traditional skittishness about providing quarterly guidance, we thought this was important and very bullish. Additionally, we felt the discussion of potential acquisitions has enormously bullish implications and fall in line with what we have been expecting to see when the stock became more liquid and appreciated to the point that it would make good deal currency. Inuvo is now in position to acquire assets/companies that have consumer appeal as measured by traffic but due to lack of scale, expertise or resources they have been able to sufficiently monetize their traffic/assets. Inuvo has long had the expertise, but was simply not in a good enough financial position to acquire others. The result of Inuvo’s own improvements in monetizing traffic/assets over the last 12-18 months is that they have been able to earn a profit and pay down their debt, something that investors have begun to recognize and the stock price has appreciated as a result. This puts Inuvo in a great position of being able to make accretive acquisitions and thereby accelerate the growth of the company.
Groove investors should not be surprised to see significant volatility in the stock price over the days and weeks ahead as more sophisticated (hedge funds, institutions, etc.) investors begin to build a stake in Inuvo, as they have the ability to move small company stock prices significantly as they build their stakes. Counterintuitively, their interest in buying into the Inuvo story can result in the stock price falling during times when you might expect to see it rise. We remain very bullish on Inuvo’s prospects and view weakness in the stock price without substantive negative news as an opportunity to buy more shares.
A short selling syndicate published an article yesterday that was picked up by several outlets (Seeking Alpha, Benzinga, etc.) and Inuvo stock fell significantly as a result. While our note to Groove community investors last week suggesting they take their risk capital off the table north of $3 likely blunted the impact on the Groove community to some degree, watching one of our focus stocks fall 40% on heavy volume prompted us to do two things –
1) Buy more stock. In the same way Inuvo arguably got ahead of itself trading from $1.60 to $3.50 in a very short time frame, we believe a sell off of this magnitude based on an article like this makes little sense.
2) Take a closer look at the substance of the article and make sure Groove investors and others are aware of a few things –
a) this article was written and published by a group that had taken a material short position in Inuvo. It appears that the article was written for the purpose of driving the stock price down so they could buy shares at a lower price to repay the lender of shares they borrowed and sold at a higher price. Interestingly enough, those of us who are buying the stock today are quite likely competing with traders from the Streetsweeper group, who must buy Inuvo shares to cover their short position to be able to profit from the article.
b) the article was mostly a takedown of the company’s old toolbar business. Inuvo management would likely agree with many of the points made and that is why they started working two years ago to exit that business and completed their exit about a year ago. Several quarters ago the company quit reporting the revenue earned from toolbars because it was no longer material.
c) the article suggests that there was hype around Inuvo’s Yahoo and Google deals, but this is kind of puzzling to us. We monitor many of the investor forums and we saw little if any mention of these contracts, which was not surprising because the company has had these contracts for many, many years. While recent press releases mentioned that the company had renewed these agreements, there was no hype or even significant discussion among investors about the impact of them – these contracts are really just business as usual for Inuvo.
d) The article quoted a “long time analyst” in saying that Inuvo’s new targeted ad units are really just “banner ads”. While there is a little more science than a random banner ad going on there, we do not disagree that at the end of the day they are just advertisements that reside in places where old school banner ads used to be. However, we think targeted advertising is a pretty good business and wonder if that analyst has ever reviewed Google and its even more boring and old school text-based pay-per-click ads. Google’s adwords are not quite as flashy as banner ads, but like Inuvo’s new ad units they are placed in contexts where consumers seeking certain content might find them interesting or useful. Advertisers spend many billions of dollars each year to gain exposure through those placements and there are very few inventions in the history of corporate America that have created more wealth in a short time than adwords. While we don’t think Inuvo has developed anything that will keep Larry Page or Marissa Mayer up late at night plotting counter-measures, we do think Inuvo has developed a mousetrap that is better than the previous iteration of advertisements they were offering and this appears to be driving the company’s improving profitability.
e) The article discussed a “striking decline” in Inuvo’s traffic, but only showed charts for two of Inuvo’s significant URLs. We have long known that the company uses opportunistic pay-per-click ad placements to drive traffic to its websites to supplement the organic traffic that finds them through direct navigation, search engines and links from other sites. While we agree that the declines in traffic for example sites used is pretty striking when compared with last years, but we suspect that Inuvo is likely finding greater opportunities for driving traffic with their other URLs and note that compete.com shows “finance.alot.com” having February traffic that was slightly higher than last year’s and approximately 100% higher than January of last year. Living.alot.com did not have meaningful traffic one year ago, but it has averaged over 100k unique visitors over the last three months. If the noted examples do turn out to be representative of a wholesale decrease in traffic for ALOT sites, we will agree that should dampen enthusiasm for the Inuvo growth story. However, we do not think the random sample chosen necessarily reflects that yet and we would wait to see the reported results for that period before making that determination.
f) The last point made in the article was that Mr. Howe (when pressed) said that the board had discussed the sale of more stock. We do not view his comments as negative in any way, quite the opposite, as it would be surprising if a board of directors meeting were held after the company’s stock had risen to multi-year highs and there was not some discussion of whether they should consider selling stock and/or using the stock as acquisition currency. We believe the purpose of that line of questioning was so that the writer of the article could give the impression that a dilutive stock offering was imminent. We have seen nothing to suggest that is the case.
In summary, while we agree that the stock traded a little ahead of itself in trading up to $3.50, we think the 40% sell off since hitting those highs was driven by an article full of misdirection (as if the toolbar business was relevant) and specious assertions rather than any substantive operational or financial issues. We are buyers of the stock today and will be interested to see how quickly those who have gone to such great lengths to drive the stock price down will be joining us in buying Inuvo shares.
Travelzoo reported an excellent quarter today, one that gave evidence of strength in the core business and the report plus several encouraging comments on the conference call lead us to believe that management remains properly focused on rolling out the hotel booking service. Additionally, we were pleasantly surprised at the degree to which the marketplace seems to be grasping what we had already come to believe – that Travelzoo’s core business has stabilized and the several quarters of heavy investment with little revenue to show for it may be largely behind us, as we expect that future reports will be increasingly impacted in a positive way by hotel booking revenue.
Management’s gloomy outlook and talking down of expectations on the Q4 call led us to believe that Q1 would be less than impressive – in line with analysts’ estimates at best and more likely coming in slightly below the analysts’ expectations. Instead, Travelzoo reported earnings of 13 cents per share, a full 5 cents per share higher than analysts’ expectations and they also reported a top line of $36.5m, outperforming the estimates by $1.7m. Additionally, management made comments in the prepared statements and in the Q&A following the report that were undeniably positive – something we did not get on the Q4 call a few weeks back.
A few of our favorites –
“…we continued to run more deals through our Hotel Booking Platform instead of the Getaways model” + “..our main focus is on hotels at this time”. These comments lead us to believe that TZOO management from the top down understands the transformative opportunity here with the hotel business and all the noise after last quarter’s report about the company moving away from the hotel booking business was just that – noise.
“We had a slow start and then we really did quite well in March” We believe this is evidence that the company’s operations are starting to gain momentum at a really great time and that the stabilization and/or growth of various lines will add fuel to the fire when the hotel booking service results start to materially enhance the company’s income statement.
“we have very good coverage now in sort of the top 10 destinations for North America”. This is great because it means there are now markets where the company can test its full-blown marketing approach vs. some segmented approach that would not give a true indicator of how the various approaches work. This is a key marker in the company’s journey to offer hotel booking on demand to all of its subscribers worldwide, something we hope to see by the end of the current fiscal year.
A development we have been watching that was not discussed specifically on the call is Travelzoo’s deal with Getaroom and a third-party provider of hotel booking connectivity. We had been expecting to see Travelzoo affiliate with one of the larger players in the hotel booking space to gain the critical mass of inventory they need to fully leverage their 27 million strong base of subscribers and we were pleased to discover recently that Travelzoo.com is live with such a deal to access the inventory of Getaroom, a rapidly growing wholesaler of lodging that now counts over 80,000+ hotels in its program. It appears that Travelzoo is offering the Getaroom inventory in its existing markets currently, but we expect to see Travelzoo eventually roll out Getaroom and or other partner’s inventory in other markets of significance (those markets called “secondary” by Mr. Bartel on today’s call) over the next few months.
Getaroom is a great strategic partner for Travelzoo as it allows them to get the hotel inventory they need (80,000+ inventory and deep coverage in every market of significance in North America) without boosting the fortunes of their biggest competitors (Priceline & Expedia) in the space. Additionally, it allows them to offer rates that are unique from those of its ubiquitous competitors whose far-flung affiliate partners (see Mr. Bartel’s Trivago conversation on the call about this very situation) make their rates seem like the going market rate when in fact there may be a better rate for consumers who will shop Travelzoo in their shopping process. Getaroom often has lower total prices than Expedia, Booking.com, Priceline, etc. and Travelzoo will benefit tremendously from being able to offer rates that are distinct (and in many cases lower) from those offered by its larger competitors.
Getaroom is run by Bob Diener and David Litman, the original founders of Hotel Reservations Network, which became Hotels.com. Messrs. Diener and Litman essentially invented the wholesale lodging business that transformed Expedia from a barely profitable OTA into a powerhouse that eventually gobbled up most of its competitors and that allowed Priceline go from company doing a reverse split to avoid becoming a penny stock to the $1200+/- stock it is today. While Priceline’s wholesale business is now secondary to its agency hotel business (booking.com), I think it is fair to say that the engine that powered the growth of Expedia and Priceline has its roots in the model developed by the pioneers who now lead Getaroom.com and we think this is great company for Travelzoo.
We continue to believe that the hotel booking business will transform Travelzoo and create significant wealth for shareholders, so we are pleased to see the company taking the steps we have long believed needed to be taken to expand the hotel business at a faster pace. Travelzoo’s arrangement with Getaroom will allow them to better leverage their subscriber base and expand their market coverage significantly in a very short time frame as they gain very broad and deep inventory with unique “Best Rate Guaranteed” rates. Additionally, we believe Travelzoo’s first quarter report indicates that the company has turned a corner with its core operations and we expect the hotel booking business to have a very positive impact on Travelzoo’s numbers going forward. The rally in Travelzoo shares on such large volume suggests that new investors are starting to understand what can happen here as the company transforms its model and those that have previously bet against Travelzoo may finally be coming around too. With over 1/3 of the “true public float” sold short prior to the release of the quarterly report, it’s no wonder that there was such scrambling for shares today and we would not be surprised at all to see that continue until it finds a price range where more investors are willing to sell enough shares. Despite the move of over 50% since we first recommended TZOO to the Groove community a couple of months ago, we think investors would do well to hold on to their shares here as today’s move only reflects the turn and we expect Travelzoo to be trading at significantly higher prices a few months out.